Canadians will head to the polls on 28 April to decide who will form the next government. Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre are the most likely candidates to become the next prime minister. What is the story and why does it matter? In early January, Justin Trudeau announced a decision that many in his party had long hoped for: he was resigning after nearly a decade as Canada’s prime minister. Party infighting and the prime minister’s personal unpopularity had made it nearly impossible for him to face off against his political rivals, especially the Conservative party which had polled as many as 25 points ahead of Trudeau’s Liberal party. Trudeau’s resignation came amid deep anxiety prompted by Donald Trump’s threats to impose potentially devastating tarrifs and even annex Canada and make it the 51st US state. The prime minister’s decision to stand down kicked off a leadership race within the Liberals. Mark Carney, the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, won a decisive victory and was sworn in as prime minister days later. But Carney, a political novice who had never held political office, was in the role for only nine days when he called a snap election. Carney faced two problems: Trump’s economic threats and the uncomfortable fact that he didn’t have a seat in the House of Commons, meaning he risked becoming a political punching bag for opposition parties – with no chance to hit back. For months, the Conservatives had been the sure bet to win any election. But sensing a rapidly shifting national mood prompted by Trump’s aggression Carney calculated a snap federal election was his best option. Who are the key players and what have they promised? Five political parties were represented in parliament before the election was called. But in most voters’ minds, there are two main choices for prime minister: Liberal leader Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Amid the broader concerns over Canada’s economic security and sovereignty, opposition voices such as the leftwing New Democratic party, the sovereigntist Bloc Québécois and the Green party have struggled to remain relevant. There is little daylight between the federal leaders on issues of Canada’s relationship with the United States. Both have rejected the idea Canada would ever cede its sovereignty. But while both acknowledge a cost of living crisis and housing unaffordability have left Canadians feeling worse off, they have divergent solutions. Poilievre has promised to cut regulations, diminish the role and size of government in order to facilitate homebuilding. Carney, in contrast, is leaning government as a key figure in any wide-scale building effort. Poilievre, a brash populist and seasoned parliamentary “attack dog”, has inspired a fervent response from his supporters, who say he has given a voice to those who feel ignored and mocked by political elites. The Tory leader has told supporters he will crack down on crime, toughening sentences for the worst offenders in a move that he admits would breach the country’s charter of rights and freedoms – but promising to use an arcane constitutional mechanism that permits him to do so anyway. Carney has largely run a campaign on his economic and business credentials, tacking the party towards the political centre in an attempt to lure in disaffected voters from both sides of the political aisle. Conservatives have used his CV in their attacks, alleging he used tax loopholes when chair of the investment firm Brookfield. Carney has also faced criticism from the Conservatives for adopting their own policy proposals, including removing a controversial carbon tax. How does the system work? Canada’s federal election is really 343 separate elections across the country held simultaneously. Those parliamentary elections in Canada are normally held every four years and under federal law, an election is required by October 2025 at the latest. Using a parliamentary system stems from the British or Westminster tradition, the party with the most votes typically forms government. If either the Liberals or the Conservatives win 172 or more seats, they will have a majority government. Anything less than that and they will be required to work with other parties to pass legislation. In 2021, the Liberals failed to win a majority and later struck a deal with the New Democratic party, known as a confidence and supply agreement, to help them form a government. The Liberals have indicated that they are campaigning to win a majority government because under a minority government scenario, opposition parties have the opportunity of defeating the governing party in a vote of no-confidence and triggering another election. What do the polls say and what is the likely outcome? Until February, the Conservatives enjoyed a 25 point lead over the Liberals. Pollsters gave the Tories a 99% chance of winning if an election were called at the time with one of the largest parliamentary majorities in decades. But Trump’s aggressive posture towards Canada has scrambled the stakes of the election: the Conservative’s dominant lead has disappeared and now they find themselves trailing in the twilight of the campaign. Of the 12 polling firms in Canada surveying voters, all of them show the Liberals leading to the extent that a majority government is the most likely outcome. The math looks even more dire for the Conservatives, with the Liberals enjoying a domain lead in the most vote-rich parts of the country. Canadians will vote on 28 April, but advance voting opens in the coming days.
Author: Leyland Cecco