The polls have now closed in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island. Prime minister and Liberal party leader Mark Carney is reminding voters that they can still cast their ballot if they are in line when polls close. “Your vote matters,” Carney writes in a post on X. Polls are now closed in Newfoundland and Labrador. The first results are expected to be available shortly. It was the middle of the night when the Bloc Québécois realized they had achieved the improbable. For weeks, the separatist party in Canada’s Francophone province had been campaigning hard to steal an electoral district in Montreal long held by the Liberals. When the trickle of votes finally stopped on that September evening, the Bloc’s Louis-Philippe Sauvé had emerged victorious by a narrow margin of 200 votes. Chastened by the loss, the then prime minister, Justin Trudeau, admitted his Liberals had “a lot of work to do”. The defeat reflected a governing party in tatters and a leader losing his grip on power. And to party faithful, the Bloc’s win reflected an excitement that the separatist movement was once again in ascendance. Six months later, the heady days of the Bloc’s growing popularity are over. Donald Trump’s effort to trash his country’s relationship with Canada has led to a dramatic realigning of allegiances, with a swell in Canadian pride washing over regional differences. Until February, the Conservatives enjoyed a 25 point lead over the Liberals. Pollsters gave the Tories a 99% chance of winning if an election were called at the time with one of the largest parliamentary majorities in decades. But Donald Trump’s aggressive posture towards Canada has scrambled the stakes of the election: the Conservative’s dominant lead has disappeared and now they find themselves trailing in the twilight of the campaign. Of the 12 polling firms in Canada surveying voters, all of them show the Liberals leading to the extent that a majority government is the most likely outcome. The math looks even more dire for the Conservatives, with the Liberals enjoying a domain lead in the most vote-rich parts of the country. Only one Canadian adult is legally barred from voting from today’s federal election: Stéphane Perrault, the country’s chief electoral officer and the head of Elections Canada. According to Elections Canada: The Chief Electoral Officer is responsible for the administration of elections, referendums and other important aspects of our electoral system. Perrault was appointed to the post in 2018. Canada’s former prime minister Jean Chrétien has predicted the Liberals will win a majority government after polls close tonight. Chrétien, 91, said he expects “to celebrate the majority government of the Liberal party” during a rally for Ottawa Centre Liberal incumbent Yasir Naqvi, the Canadian Press reported. “Monday is going to be a Liberal sunshine,” he said, drawing cheers. Chrétien led three majority Liberal governments between 1993 and 2003 and has campaigned for the party in dozens of 30 electoral districts across the country as the party seeks to match – or even eclipse – his 1993 landslide victory. The nation’s capital has braved more political turbulence than most can recall in decades with internecine feuds, threats to Canadian sovereignty and political resurrections. But perhaps more devastating for residents of Ottawa has been the cruelty of a drawn out winter, with spring snow squalls and persistently grey skies. And so even on the day of what party leaders have billed as the most important election in a generation, many voters in Ottawa seemed more excited by the weather. On a disconcertingly pleasant spring day that has many celebrating the return of the sun, Liberal leader Mark Carney cast his ballot in the Ottawa neighbourhood where he’s lived for the last 10 years, walking past sprouting daffodils and cautiously flowering trees to a nearby polling station with his family. Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, also cast his ballot in Ottawa with his family, where he looks to defend the electoral district he’s held for the last seven terms. But, in protest of the country’s “first past the post” electoral system, activists have added 90 names to the ballot- making the ballot more than a metre long and creating headaches for Elections Canada and the scrutineers. Vote-rich Ontario and neighbouring Quebec promise to be battlegrounds where both parties are looking to either confirm – or rebut – polling that has the Liberals favoured to emerge victorious. Election day in Canada falls on a day of mourning after 11 people were killed and dozens of others injured when a driver ploughed a car into a crowd at a street festival in Vancouver on Saturday evening. The festival, known as Lapu-Lapu Day, is also widely celebrated in the Philippines and honors Datu Lapu-Lapu, the Filipino chieftain who famously defeated Spanish forces in 1521. Many across Canada have set aside time today not only to vote, but to mourn and visit makeshift memorials in honor of the victims. The Public and Private Workers of Canada (PPWC), a trade union based in British Columbia, urged people to “get out and vote” as it says the rights of Canadian workers are “under threat”. “Big corporations and wealthy elites are working harder than ever to influence policy in their favour, often at the expense of working families,” the statement says. “If we stay silent, we risk losing the gains we fought so hard to achieve. If we act, we can elect leaders who will invest in social services and good paying jobs, strengthen labour laws, tackle the climate crisis, and ensure dignity for every worker. “The stakes are too high for any of us to sit this election out.” Prime minister Mark Carney is posting hockey-themed campaign videos on social media, including using the phrase “Elbows up”, a hockey reference describing players using their his elbows to defend themselves and now used to as a pro-Canada sovereignty slogan, as well as a post saying: “Today, we leave everything on the ice.” He also included a video featuring actor Mike Myers in an ice hockey rink. Liberal leader Mark Carney has been spotted casting his vote at a polling station in Ottawa, Ontario. Carney and his wife, Diana Fox Carney, voted in the Ottawa-Vanier-Gloucester riding where they are resident. Carney is not running in that riding but instead he is running in Nepean, another suburban Ottawa riding. New Democratic party leader Jagmeet Singh’s own riding of Burnaby Central could be at risk, according to reports. Polls suggest Singh is in a three-way race to hold on to his seat, with polls projecting a Liberal victory in the riding, according to the Canadian press. New Democratic party leader Jagmeet Singh has also responded to Donald Trump’s comments this morning, after the US president once again threatened Canada’s independent sovereignty. “I hear Trump has something to say about our election,” Singh wrote in a post on X. “He doesn’t choose our future. We do.” He urged voters to “protect what makes Canada, Canada”. Here are some of the latest images from Canada, where voters have been casting their ballots across the country to decide who will form the next government. There is little daylight between Liberal leader Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre on issues of Canada’s relationship with the United States. Both have rejected the idea Canada would ever cede its sovereignty. But while both acknowledge a cost of living crisis and housing unaffordability have left Canadians feeling worse off, they have divergent solutions. Poilievre has promised to cut regulations, diminish the role and size of government in order to facilitate homebuilding. Carney, in contrast, is leaning government as a key figure in any wide-scale building effort. Poilievre, a brash populist and seasoned parliamentary “attack dog”, has inspired a fervent response from his supporters, who say he has given a voice to those who feel ignored and mocked by political elites. The Tory leader has told supporters he will crack down on crime, toughening sentences for the worst offenders in a move that he admits would breach the country’s charter of rights and freedoms – but promising to use an arcane constitutional mechanism that permits him to do so anyway. Carney has largely run a campaign on his economic and business credentials, tacking the party towards the political centre in an attempt to lure in disaffected voters from both sides of the political aisle. Conservatives have used his CV in their attacks, alleging he used tax loopholes when chair of the investment firm Brookfield. Carney has also faced criticism from the Conservatives for adopting their own policy proposals, including removing a controversial carbon tax. Five political parties were represented in parliament before the election was called: Liberal party, led by Mark Carney Conservative party, led by Pierre Poilievre Bloc Québécois, led by Yves-François Blanchet New Democratic party, led by Jagmeet Singh Green party, led by Elizabeth May But this election is essentially a two-man race between Carney, the current prime minister, and Pollievre. Carney, 60, is the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. He became prime minister, replacing Justin Trudeau, after winning the race to lead the country’s federal Liberal party last month. Poilievre, 45, has taken his Conservative party from the conventional right to the populist flank. He has been compared to Donald Trump, promising to put Canada first by rebuilding the military and by taking back control of Canada’s borders. Who is eligible to vote? Canadian citizens who are at least 18 years old are eligible to vote today Voters must vote at their assigned polling station. To find out where they can vote, they can check their voter information card Voters must be registered. Those who are not registered can register at their polling station when they go to vote. Voters must prove their identity and address – here are three options to do so Canada’s federal election is really 343 separate elections across the country held simultaneously. Those parliamentary elections in Canada are normally held every four years and under federal law, an election is required by October 2025 at the latest. Using a parliamentary system stems from the British or Westminster tradition, the party with the most seats typically forms government. If either the Liberals or the Conservatives win 172 or more seats, they will have a majority government. Anything less than that and they will be required to work with other parties to pass legislation. The unfailing politeness of Canadians is a national character trait recognised the world over, but expats living in the UK who were readying their postal ballots for the elections were in no mood for niceties. “If you mess with Canadians, we’ll hit back,” said Sarah Helppi, a 44-year-old Toronto native turned Londoner who spoke to the Guardian as she posted her ballot for what she called the most important Canadian vote in her lifetime. For Helppi, hitting back against Donald Trump’s import tariffs and threats to annex what he has derisively called the “51st state” meant casting a postal vote in Canada for the first time in the 12 years she has lived in the UK. “I feel united with the Canadian people in trying to find their way out of this,” she said. We want someone to make the hard decisions about how to re-engineer the economy away from the US, and to me that person is [Mark] Carney. “I think it’s quite clear that it’s going to be between Carney and [Pierre] Poilievre this time around,” said Nathalie Cook, a 29-year-old primary school teacher from Ottawa living in London. “It definitely feels like the most important election I’ve ever voted in.” Some voters in Windsor, Ontario, are being redirected to a new polling location after a fire forced the shutdown of a recreation centre that was serving as a federal election polling station. Fire crews were called to WFCU Centre earlier on Monday and people inside were evacuated, Windsor fire and rescue services said. The fire has since been brought under control. Election officials have redirected Windsor-Tecumseh-Lakeshore voters to St Joseph’s high school nearby. Elections Canada is urging voters who plan to head to the polls after work or around dinner time to consider going a little earlier or later. Voters who have a flexible schedule should consider heading to the polling station before lunch or early in the afternoon when polls are typically less busy, it says. The Bloc Québécois leader, Yves-François Blanchet, has been pictured casting his vote in Chambly, Quebec. Blanchet said he expected close battles in Quebec and that it would be “a very interesting evening for people who like politics as much as others like golf or football.” Polls show Bloc Québécois in second place in Quebec with 28% support, after the Liberals at 42% support, according to CTV. Canadians across the country are heading to the polls to cast their votes to decide who will form the next government. The two clear frontrunners are the Liberal party, led by Mark Carney, and the Conservative party, led by Pierre Poilievre. Here’s a recap of the latest developments: Polls have opened nationwide with the last polls expected to close at 10pm EDT. Preliminary results are likely to come in tonight or early Tuesday morning. A record 7.3 million people had already cast their ballots in advance polls before election day, according to Elections Canada. Canada has 28.9 million eligible voters. The Liberals are the “clear frontrunners” of this election with a 83% chance of victory, according to Canada Sports Betting. The Conservative party is still trailing behind with a 23% chance of winning, it says. Donald Trump’s aggressive posture towards Canada has scrambled the stakes of the election. Until February, the Conservatives enjoyed a 25 point lead over the Liberals. Trump once again threatened Canada’s independent sovereignty on the eve of the election, describing the border between the two nations as an “artificially drawn line from many years ago”. In a Truth Social post, the US president urged Canada to become the 51st state of the US, claiming it would bring tax cuts, and increased military power. Poilievre responded to Trump’s threat by urging him to “stay out of our election”. “Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state,” the Conservative leader posted on X. Carney, also in an apparent reference to Trump, said “this is Canada – and we decide what happens here.” In a video posted on X, the Liberal leader referred to a “crisis” in the US and reminded voters of the threat to Canada’s economy posed by Trump’s tariffs. Canada Sports Betting, a top resource for Canadian betting, has been updated to show the Liberals as the “clear frontrunners” of this election. According to these odds, Liberals have an 83% chance of victory. While the Liberals have seen a slight decline and Conservatives have seen a slight boost in odds in the days leading up to the election, the Conservative party is still trailing behind with a 23% chance of winning, according to the company. In a short video posted on X, prime minister Mark Carney referred to a “crisis” in the US and reminded voters of the threat to Canada’s economy posed by Trump’s tariffs. Carney says in the video: “I know people are anxious right now. The crisis in the United States doesn’t stop at their borders. “They can become divided and weak. But this is Canada and we decided what happens here. Let’s choose to be united and strong – Canada strong.” Conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre, along with his wife, Anaida Poilievre, have cast their votes at an Ottawa polling station in Ontario, Canada. Polls are now officially open across Canada. Here are a few images of what voting day looks like. Both liberal prime minister Mark Carney and conservative Pierre Poilievre are still doing some last minute campaigning on social media. Carney posted on X: “It’s time, Canada. Vote #CanadaStrong” along with a campaign video. Poilievre posted on X: “It’s simple: No vote, no change. Bring friends, family and coworkers out to VOTE for Change. Vote Conservative.” Conservative Pierre Poilievre posted on X: “President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box. “Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state. “Today Canadians can vote for change so we can strengthen our country, stand on our own two feet and stand up to America from a position of strength.” This post appears to be a response to Trump’s earlier post on Truth Social, where he urged Canadians to make their country the 51st US state. Canada’s sovereignty is considered to be on the ballot thanks to Trump, and Poilievre is likely seeking to distance himself from the controversial US president whom he has praised in the past. Here are some pictures of voters lining up outside a polling station in Toronto, Ontario this morning as Canada votes in the federal election. A record number of people – 7.3 million – have already voted during an early voting period that was held last weekend. That topped the 5.8 million Canadians who voted early at the last federal election in 2021. All ballots in a Canadian federal election are counted by hand in front of witnesses, and the final results are validated over a period of time then made available online. However it usually becomes clear on the night from preliminary results where one party looks as if they are going to achive a majority and form the next government, and who will be prime minister. Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney has arrived at Ottawa’s International airport on election morning. Yesterday he was in Vancouver attending a vigil at the scene of a car ramming attack that killed 11 people and injured dozens at a Filipino heritage festival. Donald Trump issued a statement overnight on the eve of Canada’s election, again threatening the country’s independent sovereignty, and describing the border between the two nations as an “artificially drawn line from many years ago”, in another awkward intervention for Conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre. Using the Truth Social platform, the US president started by wishing “Good luck to the great people of Canada,” on the eve of the election, and then urged them to become the 51st state of the US, claiming it would bring tax cuts, and increased military power. He said: Good luck to the great people of Canada. Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the world, have your car, steel, aluminum, lumber, energy, and all other businesses, quadruple in size, with zero tariffs or taxes, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st state of the US. No more artificially drawn line from many years ago. Look how beautiful this land mass would be. Free access with no border. All positives with no negatives. It was meant to be! America can no longer subsidize Canada with the hundreds of billions of dollars a year that we have been spending in the past. It makes no sense unless Canada is a state! Poilievre’s party had seemed all set for a significant victory at the Canadian federal election according to polling earlier this year, until Trump began issuing a series of statements threatening Canada’s independence and beginning a trade war between the neighbours, which appeared to revive the fortunes of the Liberal party under recently appointed prime minister Mark Carney. Canada’s Globe and Mail reports that for this election, authorities have sent out a record number of voting packs to overseas voters, including to 20,000 new voters living in the US. Over 100,000 overseas voting kits have been sent out, of which 44,623 had been returned by 26 April. At the last election about 55,000 kits were sent to overseas voters. Earlier this month my colleague Leyland Cecco put together this comprehensive guide to today’s poll: Canada elections – who are the key players and what is at stake? In a country that spans multiple time zones, the windows of voting are set so that results can be arrived at mostly at the same time across the board. The voting windows are as follows: Newfoundland time: 8.30am to 8.30pm Atlantic time: 8.30am to 8.30pm Eastern time: 9.30am to 9.30pm Central time: 8.30am to 8.30pm Mountain time: 7.30am to 7.30pm Pacific time: 7am to 7pm Until February, the Conservatives enjoyed a 25 point lead over the Liberals. Pollsters gave the Tories a 99% chance of winning if an election were called at the time with one of the largest parliamentary majorities in decades. But Donald Trump’s aggressive posture towards Canada has seemingly changed all that: the Conservatives’ dominant lead has disappeared and they found themselves trailing during the twilight of the campaign. Five parties were represented in Canada’s parliament at the point this election was called. Mark Carney’s Liberal party held 153 seats, shy of an overall majority. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative party had 120 seats, and formed the official opposition party. Bloc Québécois had 33 seats, the New Democrats (NDP) 24 seats, and the Green party held two seats. There were three independent seats and some vacancies. Canadians are heading to the polls in a federal election overshadowed by fury at Donald Trump’s threats to the country’s sovereignty and fears over his escalating trade war. In the final days of a month-long campaign – described by all party leaders as the most consequential general election in a lifetime – the US president yet again re-inserted himself into the national discussion, with fresh threats to annex the country. Also overshadowing the final day of electioneering was a deadly attack at a bustling street festival in Vancouver that left the country reeling and forced the prime minister, Mark Carney, to briefly suspend his campaign. As recently as January, Canadian pollsters and political pundits struggled to find fresh ways to describe the bleak prospects for the then prime minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party, which seemed on track for a catastrophic blowout. The party trailed the rival Conservatives by as many as 27 points in some polls. The Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, was poised for the largest and most resounding electoral victory in more than half a century. That strength was the result of a laser-focused, years-long campaign to weaken the governing Liberals and the parties that supported their minority government. But Trump’s detonation of the US’s closest diplomatic and economic relationship has fundamentally reshaped how many feel about their southern neighbour and heavily influenced how Carney, the former central banker who inherited control of the Liberal party in mid March, has shaped his electoral bid. That framing has the possibility of producing a result that would have been unfathomable three months ago. Welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of today’s crucial election in Canada, as polls open to determine who leads the country, with Liberal leader Mark Carney facing off against the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre to see who will emerge as prime minister … Carney, prime minister since March, has largely run a campaign on his economic and business credentials, tacking the party towards the political centre in an attempt to lure in disaffected voters Poilievre is seen as a brash populist and seasoned parliamentary “attack dog”, whose supporters say has given a voice to those who feel ignored and mocked by political elites After the resignation of Justin Trudeau earlier in the year, and with the Conservative party riding high in the polls, all the signs were that the Liberals’ near-decade in power would come to an end. However, the dramatic interventions of US president Donald Trump into Canadian politics has upended the election Canada’s federal election consists of 343 separate elections across the country held simultaneously. If either the Liberals or the Conservatives win 172 or more seats, they will have a majority government. Anything less than that and they will be required to work with other parties to pass legislation A record 7.3 million people have already cast their ballots over four days of advanced voting. Canada has 28.9 million eligible voters
Author: Léonie Chao-Fong (now); Marina Dunbar and Martin Belam (earlier)