Meanwhile, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen lauded Merz as “a proven friend and expert on Europe,” promising to “work together for a strong and more competitive Europe.” Here is her post, in German. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is among the first global leaders to offer formal congratulations for Merz. In a social media update, he says he hopes to see “more German leadership in European and transatlantic affairs.” Here’s his post in full: I sincerely congratulate @_FriedrichMerz on his election as Germany’s new Federal Chancellor. Ukraine is deeply grateful for the support of Germany and its people. Your helping hand has saved thousands and thousands of Ukrainian lives. We sincerely hope that Germany will grow even stronger and that we’ll see more German leadership in European and transatlantic affairs. This is especially important with the future of Europe at stake — and it will depend on our unity. Wishing you every success, Mr Chancellor, on the road ahead. It’s all done, and after handshakes and congratulations in the chamber, the new chancellor Friedrich Merz is out the doors to beat the rush hour traffic in Berlin as he sets off to see the president Frank-Walter Steinmeier at the Bellevue Palace. (Fortunately, it’s just a five to ten minutes drive, and that’s before you get a police escort.) In terms of what to expect next, Die Welt put together this handy timeline here, which can be roughly translated and summarised as: Within 30 minutes: Visit to see the German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier to collect his certificate of appointment Within 1,5 hours: Back in parliament to take the oath of office (will he include a reference to God, or skip it, like Scholz did?). Within 2,5 hours: Back with the president, but this time with the entire cabinet. Within 3,5 hours: Back in parliament for ministers to collectively take the oath of office. Later: He meets outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz to formally take over at the Bundeskanzleramt. In good news, the much-trailed first foreign trip to Paris and Warsaw could be back on Merz’s plan for tomorrow. There’s been no official word on this yet, but the formalities should be comfortably completed before then. And here’s a glass-half-full take on today’s events from Deutsche Bank Research’s economist Marion Mühlberger: “With the election of Friedrich Merz as Chancellor, the Bundestag has set a decisive course today. If the new government now swiftly implements its 100-day program with the urgently needed relief for the German economy, the fact that it took two attempts [for him] to become chancellor will quickly fade into the background.” Phew. Second time lucky. And a much better result now. Given the earlier events, the coalition’s celebrations are somewhat subdued, but they are clearly relieved. Merz says he accepts the post and that’s it. He will now be off to see the German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier next, with the oath-taking ceremony back in the parliament expected to start around 6.15pm Berlin time or faster “depending on traffic” in the German capital. 325 votes in favour, more than 316 required. 289 against, one abstention, three invalid votes. German parliamentary photographers are truly brutal in their depiction of the full range of emotions experienced by Friedrich Merz today. Let’s see which Merz we will see in the next few minutes when the results come in. We’ve just been given a 20 minutes warning for the result of the vote. There is certain irony that outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz, who continues in post for a bit longer as a result of this situation, appears to be one of the politicians most visibly annoyed by the delay in the chamber today. He looked absolutely furious as he walked down the aisles after the first vote, shaking his head in disbelief. Probably safe to say he is not one of the rebels. In the meantime, if you fancy a short explainer on what happened this morning, here’s my take in an easy-to-digest Q&A format: It will be really interesting to see what’s the result of the second vote. If Merz now gets all 328 coalition votes, it would show the discipline and the efficiency of the whipping operation belatedly put in place after this morning’s embarrassing defeat. Not enough to completely allow us to forget it, but a clear improvement. If he gets more than 316, but less than 328 votes, it will get him elected, but won’t be the end of his troubles, further fuelling the AfD’s narrative about the unpredictable instability of the new coalition. If he gets less than 316 and fails again, it’s an unqualified disaster. But indulge me for a second and consider this: would it be completely outlandish to wonder if there’s a (unlikely, but still) scenario in which he actually gets more than 328 votes, with some other parties – presumably in the democratic opposition – lending him their votes just to avoid having to deal with the utterly toxic and damaging fallout from another defeat? It’s a secret ballot, after all. Right, after a brief debate, it’s the main event: the second vote is now under way. It will take a while for them to first vote and then count the votes as they once again vote by putting a polling card into an envelope and throwing it into a ballot box. CDU/CSU’s Steffen Bilger opens the debate on the motion to hold a second vote today by saying the second vote on Merz will be about “the state’s ability to act and the functioning of our democracy,” and he stresses that Germany needs a government in place. He says any further delay would be unacceptable. SPD’s Katja Mast also stresses the responsibility of all lawmakers to get the new chancellor and government in place. But the Alternative für Deutschland spokesperson, Bernd Baumann, hits a very different tone as he points out that this morning’s defeat is unprecedented. He says that even if Merz secures a majority in the second vote, it shows how unstable his coalition is and that is “the opposite of what Germany needs.” The Bundestag is back in sitting and we should get under way with the second vote imminently. You can follow the proceedings below in German, but I will bring you all the key updates here. Friedrich Merz is back in the chamber, smiling and chatting away with colleagues as they gather for the second vote, but I wouldn’t want to be in his shoes now. He and his team simply cannot afford to get it wrong again. Lawmakers are gathering in the chamber again and we should be ready to start soon. As explained earlier, the coalition needed some help from opposition parties to expedite the vote. Judging by comments from CDU’s Spahn, CSU’s Hoffmann and SPD’s Klingbeil, it looks like they have secured the necessary support from the Greens and the Left to shorten the procedural timelines and put the vote back on the agenda already today. But on the substance the numbers remain the same: with 328 coalition lawmakers in the Bundestag, Merz needs at least 316 to vote for him to get over the line. The whips will hope they got their calculations right this time round. The second vote is expected to take place around 3.15pm Berlin time (2.15 London time), but obviously it’s all a bit hectic and so subject to last minute changes. And here we have the formal confirmation that the second vote will take place later today. Speaking at a briefing, CDU’s Jens Spahn says that “all of Europe, perhaps the entire world” will closely follow the vote as he appeals to lawmakers to be responsible and back the coalition candidate. SPD’s co-leader Lars Klingbeil also said he assumed “the necessary majority will now be there” to confirm Merz in post. Well, let’s see. There are early reports from German media, including Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and Welt, that there is growing confidence among the CDU/CSU politicians that another vote could take place later today with the plenary potentially resuming just after 3pm Berlin time. No official confirmation yet, but I will keep an eye on this for you. German chancellor designate Friedrich Merz has suffered a humiliating defeat in the Bundestag, as he failed to secure the majority required to confirm him in the office (10:09 CEST). Despite his “black-red” coalition of the CDU/CSU and the SPD formally having 328 votes at their disposal, he got only 310 votes in favour – six short of the required majority (10:18 CEST). The nature of the vote – in a secret ballot – makes it difficult or near impossible for Merz’s team to identify the rebels, making their job of ensuring the right result at the next attempt (10:39 CEST). This is the first time a chancellor-designate failed to get confirmed in the first round of voting in postwar history of Germany. The second vote is expected to take place this week – it could be as early as today, or as late as Friday – but the longer this crisis continue, the more it costs Merz politically. Any further delay could also derail his plans to go on a charm offensive, with pre-planned foreign trips to France, Poland and Brussels at risk, and undermining his plans to send the message that “Germany is back” and ready to offer stability in Europe. On the other hand, another defeat would further hit his credibility and could threaten his government altogether, with the far-right Alternative für Deutschland ready to exploit the crisis (10:39) and even push for another snap election (11:18 CEST). In the meantime, Olaf Scholz remains the interim German chancellor (11:34 CEST). We’re still waiting for an update on next steps, with CDU/CSU officials reportedly consulting with other parties and checking their lawyers how to read parliamentary procedures and what is needed to hold another vote as early as today or tomorrow. Reminder: we are in an uncharted territory. This has never happened before. Thanks to our brilliant video team, here’s a clip showing the moment the result of this morning’s vote on Merz’s chancellorship was announced. Could another vote take place today after all? CDU general secretary Carsten Linnemann has just told the ntv broadcaster that it was still being discussed as one of the options. CDU/CSU parliamentary group leader Jens Spahn also suggested that’s a possibility. Despite earlier reports that the sitting could be resumed at midday Berlin time, the Bundestag plenary is still empty as frenzied political consultations continue. It appears that there are three options on the table: today, tomorrow, and Friday, but which one will it actually be is anyone’s guess at this stage. Green party co-leader Felix Banaszak warned in a social media post that today’s failure to get Merz elected was “a turning point” and “not a good one” as “Germany and Europe need stability, and very soon.” But he added: “You can’t blame the opposition for not helping the government gain a majority. That’s their job.” Whatever plans Olaf Scholz had for this evening may have to wait a bit longer. It looks almost certain that he will NOT be handing the keys to the chancellery this afternoon, as previously planned. Despite the grand farewell last night, he and his ministers will continue in interim until the new government gets confirmed. What further complicates the situation is that holding another vote today (increasingly unlikely, but not fully ruled out yet) or tomorrow (actively considered) would probably require a separate procedural vote to be passed with a higher majority requires – and thus needing some support from the opposition parties. Senior representatives of the CDU/CSU and the SPD are reportedly in talks with other parties about whether it could work. The AfD and the Left are understood to be ready to offer their votes (although one would be forgiven for thinking that they may be very much hoping for even more drama to come out of this as a result.) For now, the session is adjourned as political consultations on next steps continue. As Spiegel noted, it’s six months to the day since the Scholz coalition government collapsed, on 6 November last year. What a way to mark the occasion. And, as predicted (10:39), AfD’s Alice Weidel is very much enjoying the Merz fiasco, and she has just called for a snap election. “Merz should step aside and the way should be cleared for a general election,” she told reporters, calling the result a “good day for Germany.” Germany’s presumed next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, suffered a humiliating setback on his path to power when he failed to secure the necessary 316 votes in the Bundestag lower house of parliament to be elected. It is the first time in Germany’s postwar history that a candidate has lost the first round of voting in a country that prides itself on political stability. Unconfirmed media reports said a second round would be held on Friday. Commentators called the shock outcome, in which Merz garnered 310 votes, a “complete catastrophe” and “a punch to the stomach” for the 69-year-old chancellor-designate, who leads the centre-right CDU/CSU bloc which won February’s snap election with a disappointing 28.6% of the vote. A stony-faced Merz retreated with his parliamentary group to consult on the path ahead. It was not immediately clear from the secret ballot who had withheld their expected support, either rebels among his own conservatives or from the junior coalition partners, the Social Democrats. Three abstentions were received as well as an invalid ballot. A failure to win in the second round would plunge Europe’s top economy into political turmoil, touching off an open-ended leadership battle or potentially new elections in which the far-right Alternative für Deutschland party would be expected to do well -- or even win outright. The developments throw a finely calibrated schedule for the week into disarray. Merz was to be sworn in Tuesday and travel to both Paris and Warsaw on Wednesday, signalling a return to German leadership within the EU after six months of political limbo since Olaf Scholz’s government collapsed in acrimony. He was to preside over ceremonies marking the 80th anniversary of the end of the second world war in Europe on Thursday before heading to Brussels on Friday to meet EU and Nato leaders. For what it’s worth, multiple German media are now suggesting that there won’t be another round of voting today – exactly because Merz and his team worry about the risk of another hugely embarrassing defeat. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Bild and Stern’s Julias Betschka all say the second vote is unlikely to take place today. Let’s wait for the official confirmation, though. Political groups are locked in crisis meetings as we speak. I will bring you the latest when we have it. The problem with the vote being a secret ballot is that Merz and his whips won’t even know who they need to talk to if they want to get his candidacy over the line. Given the well-choreographed timeline for the next few days – with Merz expected in Paris and Warsaw tomorrow, VE Day celebrations on Thursday, and Brussels on Friday, according to German media – he and his entourage can be temped to push for the second vote later today. But if they have another go today, they will want to make sure he will win it. Another defeat would be devastating for his position and credibility. If that’s not certain, it may be better to hold it off – but even that will undeniably cause further embarrassment. Here’s a chart reminding you of the composition of the new Bundestag, but we will never know which of the 328 MPs representing the new coalition rebelled against their chancellor designate. And if you’re wondering who is happy with this turn of events, here’s the reaction of Alternative für Deutschland’s leader Alice Weidel. In a social media post, she said the result of the vote “demonstrates the weak foundation” on which the coalition is built. Her party has been benefiting from the frustratingly long government formation process – topping some of the polls - and will surely seek to capitalise on today’s events even further. Here’s a procedural explanation on what’s next, via the Bundestag’s website: To be elected, the candidate must secure the votes of an absolute majority of the Members of the Bundestag, that is half of the Members plus at least one additional vote. This is sometimes called the “chancellor majority”. If the candidate fails to secure an absolute majority in the first round of voting, a second round is held. The Bundestag then has 14 days to elect another candidate to be Chancellor. There is no limit to the number of possible ballots, although an absolute majority is always required (Article 63.3 of the Basic Law). If this second round of voting also fails to produce a result, the election process enters a third phase in which a new election must take place immediately. The person who receives the largest number of votes (relative majority) is then elected to be Chancellor. Where the Chancellor-elect secures an absolute majority, that is the votes of the majority of the Members of the Bundestag, the Federal President must appoint the Chancellor within seven days of the election. If the Chancellor-elect receives only a relative majority, i.e. the most votes, the Federal President must either appoint the Chancellor within seven days or must dissolve the Bundestag (Article 63.4 of the Basic Law). The result will be hugely embarrassing setback for Merz. His CDU/CSU/SPD coalition nominally has 328 votes in the Bundestag – but he got only 310; 18 less than you would expect him to get, and, crucially, six short of the majority required to confirm him as the next chancellor. The joys of secret ballot. As German media note, this has never happened before in the history of the federal republic. Friedrich Merz has failed to get enough votes to become chancellor in the first vote. 310 votes in favour. He needed 316. Wow. The session gets adjourned so political groups can consult on next steps. If you’re wondering why, oh, why is it all taking so much time, it’s because it’s a secret ballot, with all parliamentarians going out of the main chamber to the lobby to physically cast their vote. The meeting has just been adjourned for 20-25 minutes as they count the votes. No prizes for guessing how Merz voted. If, as we expect, Merz gets elected in the first round of voting, the Bundestag session will be adjourned, and he will travel to see the country’s president Frank-Walter Steinmeier to get a certificate of his appointment. He will then come back to the Bundestag to take the oath of office, and later formally confirm his ministerial appointments (both with the president and the parliament). The formal takeover process is expected to be completed at 3pm. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The voting continues. And after some formal words of welcome, the vote on Friedrich Merz’s chancellorship is now under way. 316 votes are required, and it should be a formality given the CDU/CSU/SPD coalition has 328 MPs. Former German chancellor Angela Merkel is there too. Some 70 days after winning the parliamentary election in February, CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz will finally become the new German chancellor today, taking over from embattled Olaf Scholz. Last night, Scholz was given a formal send-off party – probably best described by the Economist’s Tom Nuttall as “think military parade crossed with Desert Island Discs and you’re halfway there” – leaving the office to the sounds of Bach, Aretha Franklin’s “Respect” and the Beatles’ “In My Life.” There will be time and place to properly sum up his term, acknowledging that whatever plans he may have had got quickly derailed by Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, three months into his chancellorship. But today the focus will be on what’s next with a number of extremely urgent tasks facing the new chancellor, not just in international politics or the economy, but with the broader crisis of people’s trust that things work as they should. In his farewell speech, summing up his three years holding the highest office in the country, Scholz said: “Only if you (the German citizen) have confidence in democracy and its representatives can this democracy succeed. Earning this trust has always been the driving force behind my political commitment.” Merz will need to figure out – and figure out fast – how to keep that democratic confidence alive at a time when the far-right Alternative für Deutschland, the main opposition party now formally designated as an extremist force, comes top in some of the public opinion polls. The Bundestag will sit from 9am Berlin time (8am London) to formally appoint the new chancellor, and later to confirm the members of his government, with media rumours that the first cabinet meeting will take place this evening, ahead of Merz’s expected trips to Paris and Warsaw tomorrow. We will bring you all the latest. It’s Tuesday, 6 May 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live. Good morning.
Author: Jakub Krupa