This is what Wes Streeting, the health secretary, told the comedian and podcaster Matt Forde at an event on Monday about Reform UK being the main threat to Labour. As HuffPost UK reports, Streeting said: I think there’s a genuine question if people are less cynical about [Nigel] Farage than they used to be. Let’s not forget that – for whatever I might think of him and his politics and what he has done to our country – he is objectively one of the most formidable campaigners in British politics. So we should not underestimate him and we should not underestimate Reform. I genuinely think that Reform is now Labour’s main opposition in the country, and there is a realignment on the right of British politics, of a type we haven’t seen since about a century ago since Labour supplanted the Liberals as the challengers on the centre left. And I think something similar is happening on the right. Today felt like one of those PMQs where we actually learned something substantial and important: Keir Starmer has given up on the Tories as the prime threat to Labour, and is more focused on Reform UK. To be fair, this is something he has started saying explicity. In an interview with the Sun on Sunday at the weekend, Starmer said that even before the local elections he was “planning on the basis we were likely to be facing Reform at the next election in any event”. Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has said much the same in an interview with Matt Forde, as HuffPost reports today. Given what the opinion polls are recording, it would be surprising if Starmer were not thinking this way. But just talking about the Conservative party no longer being the principal strategic opponent is one thing; acting as if you believe it is another, and that is what we saw from Starmer today. In his responses to Badenoch, there was a level of weariness and disdain that felt new. Here is one of his replies: She must be the only person left in the country who thinks the economy was booming after the last government. We’ve created new jobs, record investment, trade deals that they tried, the India deal, I think they tried for eight years and failed. We did that deal. They talked about a US deal. We did that deal. She says she is against the India deal, even though it has got the same provision she put on the table. She is against the US deal, even though it saves thousands of jobs in car manufacturing. Most absurdly she says she’s going to rip up the EU deal when she hasn’t even seen what’s on the page. A once great political party is sliding into braindead oblivion. Here is another. I think she just said a tiny tariff deal. Can I suggest she gets the train to Solihull, two hours, go to speak to the workforce at JLR, their families, their communities, to tell them she would rip up the deal that protects their jobs. And when she’s done that she might travel across to Scunthorpe and tell the steelworkers there she’s going to rip up the deal that saves their jobs, and then if she’s got time she can go up to Scotland and talk to the whisky distilleries, tell them she’d rip up the deal that’s creating 1,200 jobs for them, boosting their exports, and then come back here next week and tell us what reaction she got. And here is a third: What does she say she’ll do with the India deal? She wants to rip it up. The US deal that saves thousands upon thousands of jobs, what does she want to do? She wants to rip it up. The EU deal, good for our economy. She’s not even going to wait to see what it says. It is so unserious. She was even reduced last week to calling the Indian government and accusing them of fake news, no wonder she did so badly as a trade secretary. The project for them is over, they’re sliding into oblivion, they’re a dead party walking. It was not that Starmer was being contemptuous of Badenoch. It was more as if he no longer regards her as serious or important, and has given up trying to pretend otherwise. Perhaps this is hubris. A wise politician never underestimates their opponent. But perhaps Starmer is right after all, and perhaps Labour should be devoting all its intellectual energy to thinking about how to derail Farage. When Starmer says the Conservative party is finished, even someone like Jeremy Hunt won’t say for sure that he is wrong. And there was nothing in Kemi Badenoch’s performance today that suggests she is about to overhaul Farage. In asking about the economy, she was on the right territory. But there was no nuance, subtlety or discrimination – just sweeping, “everything’s a disaster” declinism that sounded exaggerated, out of touch and a bit silly. Farage sounded more grounded – which is one of the reasons why his party is doing better than hers. Liz Saville Roberts, the Plaid Cymru leader at Westminster, has issued this statement about the PM’s blunt response to her question at PMQs. (See 12.21pm.) The prime minister’s outburst showed that my question struck a nerve. The expressions on the faces of many Labour MPs told their own story – plenty of them know I was right. If his convictions change with the political weather, it’s no surprise that support for Labour in Wales, as across Britain, is falling through the floor. Nesil Caliskan (Lab) says the employment rights bill will deliver the biggest boost for workers’s rights in a generation. Does the PM agree that Reform UK voting against show they are not on the side of workers? Starmer does agree. He goes on: Let us be clear what the parties opposite voted against. Stronger statutory sick pay – they voted against. The right to guaranteed hours – they voted against. Protection from unfair dismissal – they voted against. Stronger protection for pregnant mothers – they voted against. Insecure work, a package worth £600 pounds to the poorest worker – they voted against. Alison Griffiths (Con) asks why pensioners are not able to claim personal independence payment. She asks about a pensioner constituent left severly disabled after a dog attack. Starmer says the current system does not work. It must be reformed. Melanie Onn (Lab) says Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes is the clean energy capital of the UK. But Reform’s new mayor has declared war in renewables. Will the government proect these jobs? Starmer says Onn is a champion of jobs. The parties opposite are “climate defeatists”. They should try explaining their policies to people dependent on these jobs, he says. John Lamont (Con) says people in his Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk constituency are “disgusted by the energy secretary’s obsessive pursuit of net zero at any cost”. Starmer say there used to be a consensus on net zero. But the Tory attitude to it now is “further evidence, as far as I can see, that the Tory project is just finished”. Andrew Snowden (Con) says the offshore cable scheme in Morecambe is one of the most objected to schemes in the country. He asks the government to consider another route. Starmer says this is subject to a quasi-judicial planning process, so there is a limit to what he can say. But he says impacts are meant to be '“carefully considered” under the planning process. Amanda Martin (Lab) asks if Starmer wil back her bill to increase penalties for people who steal tools from workers. Starmer says this is a serious crime. The justice secretary will consider this, he says. Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, says he enjoyed Starmer’s speech on Monday. He says Starmer seems to be “learning a great deal from us”. He asks Starmer to declare a national emergency at the borders. Starmer says the border security bill will give terrorism-type powers to the Border Force. But Farage voted against it. Sarah Smith (Lab) asks about a boy waiting 18 months for an EHCP in her constituency. Will the voices of parents and children be at the heart of Send reforms? Starmer says every young person with Send should get the right support. He says more funding has been allocated for this. Liz Saville Roberts, the Plaid Cymru leader at Westminster, says Starmer used to support migrants. But now he only echoes the views of focus groups, she says. She asks if there is any believe he holds which survives a week in Downing Street. Starmer replies: Yes, the belief that she talks rubbish. He goes on: I want to lead a country where we pull together a walk into the future as neighbours and as communities, not as strangers, and the loss of control of migration by the last government put all of that at risk, and that’s why we’re fixing the system based on principles of control, selection and fairness. Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, asks if the government will bring in the Lib Dem plan for a higher minimum wage for care workers. Starmer says the government will introduce a fair pay deal for them. Davey turns to Gaza, and asks if Starmer will call President Trump and ask him to recognise Palestine, and to get a plan for aid to enter Gaza. Starmer says the situation in Gaza is “simply intolerable and getting worse”. He says his team is working night and day on getting aid into Gaza, hostages released and a new ceasefire. Badenoch says Starmer needs to listen to business. Starmer says Badenoch should listen to business, who support the government’s trade deals. He criticises her for opposing the new deal with the EU before it has even been announced. UPDATE: Starmer said: What does she say she’ll do with the India deal? She wants to rip it up. The US deal that saves thousands upon thousands of jobs, what does she want to do? She wants to rip it up. The EU deal, good for our economy. She’s not even going to wait to see what it says. It is so unserious. She was even reduced last week to calling the Indian government and accusing them of fake news, no wonder she did so badly as a trade secretary. The project for them is over, they’re sliding into oblivion, they’re a dead party walking. Badenoch says business groups say the employment rights bill will make things worse for them. Why does Starmer think he knows best? Starmer says this is the same old Tories – opposed to workers’ rights. Badenoch says things are getting worse. She mentions a hospice that will be hit by the rise in employer national insurance. Starmer says Badenoch complains about the budget every week, but she supports the extra spending for the NHS without saying how she would fund it. Badenoch says she welcomed Starmer’s “tiny tariff dea” with the US. Starmer says, if Badenoch thinks that deal was tiny, she should go to Solihull and speak to steelworkers who have been protected from tariffs. UPDATE: Starmer said: I think she just said a tiny tariff deal. Can I suggest she gets the train to Solihull, two hours, go to speak to the workforce at JLR, their families, their communities, to tell them she would rip up the deal that protects their jobs. And when she’s done that she might travel across to Scunthorpe and tell the steelworkers there she’s going to rip up the deal that saves their jobs, and then if she’s got time she can go up to Scotland and talk to the whisky distilleries, tell them she’d rip up the deal that’s creating 1,200 jobs for them, boosting their exports, and then come back here next week and tell us what reaction she got. Badenoch asks about the chain store Beales having a Rachel Reeves closing down sale. Starmer says Badenoch must be “the only person left in the country who thinks the economy was booming after the last government”. He says “a once great political party is sliding into brain-dead oblivion”. UPDATE: Starmer said: She must be the only person left in the country who thinks the economy was booming after the last government. We’ve created new jobs, record investment, trade deals that they tried, the India deal, I think they tried for eight years and failed. We did that deal. They talked about a US deal. We did that deal. She says she is against the India deal, even though it has got the same provision she put on the table. She is against the US deal, even though it saves thousands of jobs in car manufacturing. Most absurdly she says she’s going to rip up the EU deal when she hasn’t even seen what’s on the page. A once great political party is sliding into brain-dead oblivion. Kemi Badenoch starts by saying how unacceptable the attacks on his home were. And she asks why unemployment is rising. Starmer says he appreciates what Badenoch said about the arson attacks. She contacted him straight way, he says. He says he was grateful. He says this was “an attack on all of us, on democracy and the values that we stand for”. On unemployment, he accuses her of talking the country down. Lorraine Beavers (Lab) asks about an air quality problem in her Blackpool constituency. Starmer says, when Tory MPs say “Oh no” at the mention of 14 years of Tory rules, they are just saying what the public feel. He says the air quality issue is one being addressed. Keir Starmer starts by mentioned the trade deal with India, and the “landmark agreement” (he does not call it a trade deal) with the US. And he says the immigration white paper has been published. He also says MPs will want to remember the 40th anniversary of the Bradford City fire. Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question at PMQs, which starts at noon. In March Reform UK reported Rupert Lowe (at the time one of their five MPs) to the police, claiming he had threatened the party chair, Zia Yusuf, with violence. Reform UK announced the news shortly after Lowe gave a newspaper interview criticising Nigel Farage, the party leader, The Crown Prosecution Service has today announced that, having considered the evidence, it is not taking further action. In a statement Malcolm McHaffie, head of the CPS’s special crime division, said: Following a thorough and detailed review of the evidence in relation to an allegation of threats, we have decided that no criminal charges should be brought against a sitting MP. Having considered a number of witness statements, we have concluded that there is insufficient evidence to provide a realistic prospect of conviction. In a statement Lowe, who is no longer in Reform, said this proved that he was the victim of a “brutal smear campaign”. He claimed the police process was “weaponised to silence a party colleague who raised reasonable concerns”. He went on: If Farage were ever to control the vast power of the British state, I believe he would not hesitate to do to his adversaries what they have tried to do to me. With real power, I fear he would wield that immense responsibility to crush dissent - as he has done time and again over the years … Please listen when I say this: For the good of our country, Nigel Farage must never be prime minister. GPs in England are deeply divided on whether assisted dying should be allowed, a BBC survey suggests. In their report, Catherine Burns and Harriet Agerholm report: BBC News sent more than 5,000 GPs a questionnaire asking whether they agreed with changing the law to allow assisted dying for certain terminally ill people in England and Wales. More than 1,000 GPs replied, with about 500 telling us they were against an assisted dying law and about 400 saying they were in favour. Some of the 500 GPs who told us they were against the law change called the bill “appalling”, “highly dangerous”, and “cruel”. “We are doctors, not murderers,” one said. Of the 400 who said they supported assisted dying, some described the bill as “long overdue” and “a basic human right”. It is a big week for assisted dying legislation. Here are some of the other stories on this running today. The Scottish parliament voted last night to consider a bill to allow assisted dying for terminally ill people for the first time, after a prolonged debate by MSPs. At least five MPs who previously abstained on the assisted dying bill have decided to vote against it at its next stage in the commons, the Guardian has learned. The Royal College of Psychiatrists (RCPsych) has voiced its opposition to the assisted dying bill in England and Wales over “many, many factors”. The assisisted dying bill covering England and Wales is back in the Commons chamber on Friday. Since second reading, it has been in committee where more than 150 amendments to the bill were passed. The House of Commons has published a very detailed briefing paper explaining how the bill has changed. On Monday, after Yvette Cooper, the home secretary, published the immigration white paper, she refused to tell MPs whether the plan to make migrants wait 10 year of earned settlement (the route to citizenship) would just apply to new arrivals, or to people already in the UK expecing to wait just five years (the current waiting time). But, according to a story by Matt Dathan in the Times, Cooper does not want to exempt migrants already in the UK from the new rules. He says: The Times can also reveal that 1.5 million foreign workers who have moved to Britain since 2020 face having to wait a further five years to apply for permanent settlement. Under reforms set out in the immigration white paper, automatic settlement and citizenship rights will be granted after ten years instead of five, but it did not state whether this would apply for migrants already here. Government sources said Yvette Cooper, the home secretary, wants to apply the changes to all migrants who have arrived in the UK in the last five years. This would mean that 1.5 million foreign workers who would have qualified for permanent settlement later this year face having to wait until they have lived in Britain for ten years. Charities, thintanks and MPs have criticised this proposal, saying that extending the amount of time migrants have to wait until they can get citizenship will be bad for integration. According to a briefing from the Migration Observatory, a migration thinktank, one reason why the Home Office favours the plan is because it will raise money. It explains: The white paper proposes increasing the duration to settlement to 10 years as the standard amount for workers, with family members still able to get settlement after 5 years. Other proposals allowing earlier settlement for people making a greater social or economic contribution are also set out, with details to be consulted on. A ten-year route to settlement would make the UK more restrictive than most other high-income countries but comparable to Switzerland and Japan. Mihnea Cuibus, researcher at the Migration Observatory, said: “The newly proposed policies would mean more migrants have temporary status. Making the route to permanent status longer is unlikely to significantly affect migration levels. One of the main impacts would be to bring in more visa-fee revenue to the Home Office, because people on temporary visas pay ongoing fees to be here. For migrants themselves, this means higher costs and longer periods without the rights that come with permanent status and citizenship.” Sarah Pochin, the new Reform UK MP for Runcorn and Helsby, has said that Labour is now sounding “more like Reform than Reform” on immigration. Speaking to Times Radio, she said: Reform have got them on the run. They know what the electorate want to hear. They’ve seen the devastating impact of our policies on their results in these latest set of elections, and so now, yes, they’re sounding more like Reform than Reform are. Pat McFadden, the Cabinet Office minister, was also asked about the controversy about Keir Starmer’s “island of strangers” comment in his speech on immigration on Monday, and its Powellite connotations. He told LBC: “This has been way overblown.” Asked if he would use the phrase himself, McFadden replied: Well, it depends on the context. I might, because what the prime minister was talking about was we need a society with rules. We need a society with responsibilities and obligations. And that’s absolutely right. We all believe in that. China has warned the UK over its new trade deal with the US, accusing Britain of aligning with the US in a move that could compel British companies to exclude Chinese products from their supply chains, Aletha Adu reports. Pat McFadden, the Cabinet Office minister, has been giving interviews this morning to talk about government plans to get rid of 12,000 civil service jobs in London. Rowena Mason has the details here. Some of the 12,000 London jobs will be relocated elsewhere in the country, and some will go for good. But, in interviews this morning, McFadden was not able to say how many of the jobs would be retained outside London. He told Times Radio: The precise number will be dependent on the demands in the future. We’re also trying to get more productivity out of the civil service because it’s grown by about 120,000 people over the last 10 years. That was a situation we inherited. And I want the civil service to be more productive as well. But I think there’s a real opportunity here because people can work and contribute in different parts of the country now. Good morning. For the last two days the immigration white paper, and the row generated by Keir Starmer’s use of Powellite language to defend it, has dominated Westminster politics, and we may well hear more of that today at PMQs. But there is quite a lot of foreign policy on the table too: the Ukraine negotiations with Russia due to take place in Turkey tomorrow, the crisis in Gaza, and next week’s summit with the EU (an issue of particular interest to Kemi Badenoch). And, of course, Donald Trump remains a ubiquitous news presence, impossible to ignore. This morning we’ve had an insight into the extent to which the US president caused a rift between the UK and Canada, two countries that for the most part are very strong allies. In an interview with Sky News, Mark Carney, the Canadian prime minister, admitted that Canadians were unhappy about Keir Starmer’s decision to offer Trump an unprecedented second state visit to the UK when he visited the White House in February. At the time, Trump was still threatening to annex Canada. Asked how Canadians reacted to state visit invitation, Carney replied: To be frank, they [Canadians] weren’t impressed by that gesture. Quite simply, given the circumstance, it was at a time when we were being quite clear, some of us were being quite clear about the issues around sovereignty. I was not yet prime minister, but I was being clear on the campaign trail and it cut across some of those messages. Asked if a state visit for Trump was appropriate, Carney replied: Well, that’s a judgment for the government of the United Kingdom and the palace. Asked if he had a personal view, Carney said: I have opinions on many things, some of which I keep to myself. This was one of those interviews where there was no surprise in the substance of what Carney said; it has been widely known that Canadians were unhappy about the state visit. But what was notable was that Carney was willing to talk about it. Pat McFadden, the Cabinet Office minister, has been giving interviews this morning, and he claimed to be “completely relaxed” about Carney’s comments. Asked about them on Sky News, he replied: We’ve got free speech in the world. Prime Minister Carney is entitled to his view. He’s got to decide how Canada conducts its relationships with the United States, and by the same token, so do we. So I’m completely relaxed about the comments, but I’m glad that President Trump is coming on a state visit, and I’m particularly glad that we’ve conducted a trade deal that saves thousands of automotive jobs in this country and is a platform for future trade which can benefit the United Kingdom economically more in the future too. The government is not going to rescind the state visit offer. But that does not mean all the difficult decisions associated with it are now settled. Trump is expected to visit Windsor Castle in September to meet King Charles, but this has not been confirmed as a state visit, and suggestions that Trump could be invited to address parliament are generating strong opposition. Here is the agenda for the day. 9.30am: Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, is due to speak to broadcasters during a visit to a charity in south Lanarkshire. 11am: Tim Davie, the BBC director general, gives a speech where he is due to call for call for a “bold collective choice to take on the trust crisis”. Noon: Keir Starmer faces Kemi Badenoch at PMQs. Lunchtime: Andy Burnham, Greater Manchester mayor, and Steve Rotheram, Liverpool metro mayor, are due to speak to the media at Westminster about their call for a Liverpool-Manchester railway line. After 12.30pm: MPs will vote on Lords amendments to the Great British energy bill, and then on Lords amendments to the data (use and access) bill. If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line when comments are open (normally between 10am and 3pm at the moment), or message me on social media. I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word. If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. You can reach me on Bluesky at @andrewsparrowgdn.bsky.social. The Guardian has given up posting from its official accounts on X but individual Guardian journalists are there, I still have my account, and if you message me there at @AndrewSparrow, I will see it and respond if necessary. I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos. No error is too small to correct. And I find your questions very interesting too. 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Author: Andrew Sparrow