And let’s go back to Vilnius, Lithuania, for an update on that military ceremony attended by German chancellor Friedrich Merz, hosted by Lithuanian president Gitanas Nausėda (11:31). Associated Press reported that Merz, the first chancellor to have served in the Bundeswehr himself, declared that “the security of our Baltic allies is also our security” as worries about Russian aggression persist. “We must do everything to defend ourselves – so that we never have to,” Merz said at a ceremony marking the establishment of a German brigade to be deployed there, adding members knew the seriousness of the situation and their responsibilities. President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday he told his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping that companies from both countries “must enjoy fair competition,” AFP reported. “Chinese investment is welcome in France. But our companies must enjoy fair competition in both countries,” Macron wrote on X following talks with Xi. “We agreed to move forward as quickly as possible on the issue of cognac, which is essential for our producers.” Macron, who spoke to Xi ahead of his trip to Southeast Asia starting on Sunday, said he reaffirmed that Chinese investments were welcome in France but that companies must enjoy equitable conditions in the two countries, AFP reported. “It’s a fundamental point,” Macron wrote. In the last ten minutes, they got into the weeds of an apartment scandal that rocked Nawrocki’s campaign with questions over the circumstances in which he bought an apartment from an elderly man, and suggestions that he failed to meet his obligations to provide care as part of the transaction. He repeatedly denies all allegations. In his closing statement, Nawrocki says the run off will be “the most important election since 1989,” and I think that will be a sentiment shared by both sides of the campaign. But 90 minutes on, that’s it. Let’s leave it then and check on other news across Europe. If you’re wondering why we are carrying these comments at length: backed by the populist-right Law and Justice party which ran Poland 2015 to 2023, Nawrocki is almost 50/50 to be Poland’s next president, which would have substantial consequences for the EU and Nato (as per earlier comments on Ukraine). And he has just signed the eight-point manifesto proposed by Mentzen (12:45), as he hopes to win over his supporters and consolidate the right-wing electorate, which accounted for about 52% of votes in the first round. It’s worth keeping an eye on this. They should be wrapping up soon. Asked about the EU, Nawrocki strongly criticises plans for a more federal EU including any proposals to “build European army,” as he says that this push to “centralise” the EU is “a threat to our sovereignty.” He goes on a longer broadside there directly criticising the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen for her track record as German defence minister, and even ticks off Belgium for its colonial past with King Leopold II saying the country is not in a position to teach him about “tolerance and openness.” “I can’t imagine that in 20 years we would become EU citizens of Polish origin,” he says, adding “these tendencies are very dangerous for Poland.” He makes claims about German problems with migration, and quips that “instead of migrant integration services, I propose illegal migrant removal centres.” Nawrocki says that any discussion on Ukraine’s fast-tracked and “unconditional” accession to Nato is “pointless” and would put the alliance in direct conflict with Russia. He says he remains opposed to it, even if he wants Ukraine to be “part of the western civilisation,” but caveats that by a long-term perspective of “decades” and “in an ideal world.” Comparing himself to the incumbent conservative president, Andrzej Duda, he says: “I am more critical towards Ukraine.” To give you a taster of what to expect from Karol Nawrocki, who could be the next Polish president after June 1, the pair begins by agreeing on extended criticism of the EU’s New Green Deal, rejection of any migration from Muslim-majority countries to Poland, and their shared opposition to extended animal rights and Covid closures in 2020 and 2021. Nawrocki also directly commits he would not send any Polish troops to Ukraine. He slightly hesitates when asked if he would resist that even if directly asked to do by US president Donald Trump, but ultimately sticks to the original line. Mentzen clearly wants to push Nawrocki, endorsed by the populist-right Law and Justice party, to criticise the last government of this party – and succeeds, at least to a certain extent. Nawrocki occassionally adds some caveats – for example, saying that it’s much easier to criticise lockdowns with hindsight or when discussing proposals for ad valorem taxation on properties – but goes above and beyond to find similarities with Mentzen as he is determined to court this right-wing electorate. Not surprisingly. And don’t just take my word for how potentially significant this Mentzen broadcast is for the Polish presidential race: it’s carried live by all major news broadcasters, with more than 200,000 people also watching it live on YouTube. They are starting their chat now. I will bring you the key updates here. Next up, I will take you to Poland, where libertarian far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen is about to host one of the remaining two candidates on his YouTube channel as he decides who, if anyone, to endorse before the run-off on 1 June. Mentzen, who came third in the first round of the presidential election last weekend with 14.81% of the vote, will speak to the conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki, endorsed by the populist-right Law and Justice party, at the top of the hour. Later this week, he will also host the winner of the first round vote, the centrist Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. Ahead of the two conversations, Mentzen had listed eight demands to both presidential candidates. He wants them to promise to block any laws proposing to raise taxes, reduce use of cash, or expand content moderation laws. He also wants his rivals to commit to not sending any Polish troops to Ukraine and to blocking Ukraine’s accession to Nato. On EU, he wants them to pledge they wouldn’t “transfer any competences of Polish authorities to EU bodies” nor sign any new treaties “weakening Poland’s role.” Mentzen’s potential endorsement could play a significant role in the second round as all polls suggest that literally every vote could count given we expect the run-off to be extremely close. It could also help the voters of the fourth candidate, far-right leader Grzegorz Braun, to make their minds up, as they share some of his views. On paper, Nawrocki appears to be ideologically much closer to Mentzen than Trzaskowski, but there are lots of variables at play here, so let’s see how these meetings go. If you want to read up on Mentzen’s rapid rise in this year’s electoral campaign into the role of a kingpresidentmaker, here’s my recent report from Warsaw. The European Parliament voted to impose prohibitive tariffs on fertilisers and certain farm produce from Russia and its ally Belarus to prevent a potential threat to EU food security and limit Russian funds for its war against Ukraine, Reuters reported. Tariffs for certain nitrogen-based fertilisers will rise over three years from 6.5% to an amount equivalent to about 100%, a level that would effectively halt trade. For the farm produce, an additional 50% duty will apply, Reuters explained. The hikes are expected to take effect on 1 July. The agency noted that more than 70% of EU fertiliser consumption in 2023 was of the nitrogen-based product targeted, and Russia accounted for 25% of EU imports, worth about 1.3 billion euros ($1.5 billion). France’s interior minister on Thursday told police to “step up surveillance at sites linked to the Jewish community” after a gunman shot and killed two Israeli embassy employees in Washington, AFP reported. The security measures must be “visible and dissuasive,” Bruno Retailleau said in a message seen by AFP. A number of European leaders condemned the attack, including Friedrich Merz, who told a press conference in Vilnius, Lithuania that one of the two Israeli embassy staff killed in Washington DC late Wednesday was possibly a German citizen. Portugal wants European energy regulators’ agency ACER to lead an independent investigation into the causes of the huge power outage that brought most of Spain and Portugal to a standstill last month, its acting energy minister told Reuters. Maria da Graça Carvalho said prime minister Luís Montenegro wants an independent investigation led by the European Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators to complement the technical report being prepared by the European network of transmission system operators ENTSO-E. “ACER, as a suitable entity to coordinate any external evaluation process, could bring more confidence, impartiality and transparency to the conclusions,” Carvalho said in an email, responding to questions from Reuters. “As for speculation about cyber-attacks, sabotage or human error, at this time there is no evidence” that any of those could have caused the outage, the minister told Reuters in a written statement. Let’s take a quick look at other developments across Europe. In the Q&A, Merz was also asked about Germany’s defence spending. He said his government wanted to “rapidly increase” defence spending, but added that it’s also about the personnel training and production capacity. He repeated his earlier line on a “path” to 5% by 2035 with 3.5% of GDP on core military spending, with further 1.5% on necessary military infrastructure – which he says is a “reasonable” and “achievable” proposal. Nausėda in turn gets asked about joint Russian-Belarussian training maneouvres later this year, and says “we are ready in any case.” In another round of questions, Merz gets asked if Germany could fill the void if the US decides to move some of its troops out of the region, but he says there are “no indications” on such plans – a view shared by Lithuania’s Nausėda. Merz acknowledges that making Europe more independent will surely come up at Nato’s summit in The Hague next month. The chancellor also later briefly comes in on Ukraine, stressing that Germany will continue to support Ukraine, and arguing that “it is also in America’s interest for us to move together here.” And that concludes the press conference. Responding, German chancellor Friedrich Merz says that the two countries are partners “not only in words, but also in deeds,” as he highlights their bilateral relationship, but also through the EU and Nato. He acknowledges “exceptionally difficult circumstances” and “very tense” situation in the Baltics in the face of Russia’s “aggressive revisionism” posing a challenge to Europe’s security as he says the decision to station a brigade in Lithuania was made to counter that threat. He says Germany remains “determined to defend the alliance’s territory against all aggression” and reassures Lithuanians “they can rely on Germany.” Merz also ventures into broader policy debates on defence, praising the EU’s white paper on rearming the continent as he says the bloc “must produce more for Europe and in Europe,” as he hails new Rheinmetall investment in Lithuania. He lists his four key messages: Insists allies must not allow Russia to “drive a wedge between us” and remain closely aligned, including with the US “whenever possible” Says allies must continue to call for a ceasefire in Ukraine, Argues allies have to continue exerting pressure on Moscow, Thanks Lithuania for its work on securing the EU’s external border against irregular migration. In his opening comments, Lithuanian president Gitanas Nausėda thanks Merz for his visit and says it shows “a clear and strong commitment” from Germany to help deter Russia from Lithuania and Nato’s eastern flank more broadly. He hails the inauguration of the German military unit in Lithuania as “a day of responsibility and action,” building up on previous temporary deployment of German troops in the country. He says that building up to the Nato summit in The Hague, “our message must be clear: we are united, ready and determined” as he says Lithuania will meet 5% GDP target on defence spending next year. Nausėda also mentions Ukraine, reiterating calls for “a comprehensive and unconditional ceasefire,” and urging partners to adopt sanctions to “break the Russian war machine.” As we wait for Germany’s Merz and Lithuania’s Nausėda to start their press conference, let me bring you another update on growing European concerns about Russia. Russia tried to hack into border security cameras to spy on and disrupt the flow of western aid entering Ukraine, the UK’s intelligence services and its allies have claimed. A unit of Russia’s military intelligence services is accused of using a host of methods to target organisations delivering “foreign assistance”, by hacking into cameras at crossings and railway stations and near military installations. GRU Unit 26165 is also accused of sending phishing emails containing pornography and fake professional information and obtaining stolen account passwords to get into systems. It was claimed the unit – also known as APT 28 and Fancy Bear – has conducted the malicious cyber-campaign against public and private organisations in Nato states since 2022. In its advisory note, the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) – part of GCHQ – called on private companies involved in the delivery of aid to “take immediate action to protect themselves”. About 10,000 cameras were said to have been accessed near “military installations, and rail stations, to track the movement of materials into Ukraine”, of which 80% were in Ukraine and 10% in Romania. It is claimed 4% of the cameras targeted were in Poland, 2.8% in Hungary and 1.7% in Slovakia. The locations of the remaining cameras targeted were not provided. The hacking would have provided access to a “snapshot” of the cameras’ images, it is said. German chancellor Friedrich Merz has just arrived at the Presidential Palace in Vilnius, where he is received by the country’s president Gitanas Nausėda ahead of the formal inauguration of the German 45th Armored Brigade “Lietuva”. The pair will speak at a press conference over the next hour, and I will bring you the key lines. Lithuania is not the only country concerned by Russia’s increasingly assertive posture. Finland has said it expects Russia to further build up troops along their shared border when the war in Ukraine ends, after reports that Moscow had strengthened its military bases near the Nato frontier. Maj Gen Sami Nurmi, the head of strategy of the Finnish defence forces, said the military is following Moscow’s manoeuvring “very closely” and that it was their job, as part of the Nato alliance, to “prepare for the worst”. The Finnish border guard announced on Wednesday it had completed the first 35km (22 miles) of a planned 200km fence on its eastern border with Russia, which has been closed for more than a year after Helsinki accused Moscow of directing asylum seekers to Finland in a “hybrid operation”. The fence also uses cameras and sensors to distinguish between people and animals crossing. Satellite images, published in the New York Times, appear to show an expansion of military infrastructure near the Finnish border, including rows of tents, military vehicles, renovations to fighter jet shelters and construction on a previously unused helicopter base. Nurmi said: “They are changing structures and we are seeing moderate preparations when it comes to building infrastructure close to our borders, meaning that they will, once the war in Ukraine hopefully ends, start to bring back the forces that have been fighting in Ukraine, especially land forces.” While this was not unexpected since Finland joined Nato at record speed in 2023 after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Nurmi said they were following the preparations “very closely”. “They are doing it in phases. I would say it is still moderate numbers. It’s not big construction, but in certain places building new infrastructure and preparing, bringing new equipment in,” he said. “You also have to evaluate whether they are preparing to send more troops to Ukraine or preparing to build up their forces close to our border. But I guess they are doing both.” Romania’s Constitutional Court has rejected the defeated ultranationalist candidate’s request to annul the presidential vote as a result of foreign interference. Despite conceding the defeat on Sunday night, George Simion later filed his challenge in a bid to overturn the result which saw him lose to liberal Bucharest mayor Nicuşor Dan. “Just as Călin Georgescu was removed and the elections were annulled [last year], we will challenge the election of Nicușor Dan for exactly the same reasons,” George Simion, an EU-critical, Trump-admiring former soccer ultra, said in a statement to local media. He repeatedly alleged electoral fraud without providing evidence. But the court has now unanimously rejected the request, saying in a brief statement that the challenge was unfounded. German chancellor Friedrich Merz visits Lithuania today to mark the official formation of Germany’s first permanent overseas military unit since the second world war, which is intended to boost Europe’s defences against Russia on the eastern flank of Nato. The armoured brigade aims to achieve full operational capability with 5,000 personnel by 2027, up from 400 at the moment. The deployment marks a major milestone in Germany’s thinking on defence and security, and is unprecedented in the postwar era. But it reflects growing concerns in this part of the world about Russia’s increasingly assertive posture – with no signs it has any intention to end its invasion of Ukraine – and some lingering doubts over Donald Trump’s US and its readiness to support allies in this part of the world. Merz has repeatedly promised to spend more on the modernisation of the Bundeswehr, responding to worries about personnel and equipment shortages. As he starts translating words into actions, this looks like a strong message from Berlin – and one coming just weeks before Nato’s summit in The Hague, the Netherlands next month. We will hear from Merz, joined on the trip by defence minister Boris Pistorius, and Lithuanian president Gitanas Nausėda at some point this morning. I will bring you all key updates from across Europe throughout the day. It’s Thursday, 22 May 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live. Good morning.
Author: Jakub Krupa