I told you it was going to be a long night. If you’re still digesting what this could mean for Poland if these late poll numbers get confirmed, let me help you. A senior PiS lawmaker and former education minister, Przemysław Czarnek, just told TV Republika: “If these polls hold and Karol Nawrocki becomes president-elect tomorrow morning … I can reassure you that maybe not starting tomorrow, but from Tuesday, we will begin very energetic work in order to give the Polish people another gift – the end of Tusk’s government.” He suggested the Law and Justice party would approach some government MPs to offer them “a longer perspective of serving Poland over the next years” in a hope to get them to defect and form a new rightwing coalition in the parliament. This remains still too close to call, but that’s a big, big plot twist. Just to help you understand what’s going on: the late poll is essentially the exit poll, updated with partial results from 50% of polling stations where they conducted the poll. Some PO lawmakers appearing on TV over the last hour or so kind of implied that was expected as the first polling stations to report are usually smaller and rural, so naturally PiS-leaning, but it will all change again when the larger polling stations report their numbers. Having said that, that’s a big swing. We will get another update – a new late, late poll – at about 1am, with some results from 90% of the polling stations that they ran the exit poll at. Plot twist: Karol Nawrocki has now gone into lead in the late poll by Ipsos, as reported by Polsat. 50.7% for Nawrocki, 49.3% for Trzaskowski. This is still too close to call, mind. If you’re thinking: oh, it’s close, but just how close could it get?, let me tell you: it can be very, very close. In the first round vote, two weeks ago, there were four places in Poland where there was only a single vote of difference between the two leading candidates. Before the second-round vote today, I visited Siekierczyn to speak with voters about their views and their hopes for Poland. You can catch up with my report here: The head of Nawrocki’s campaign and a Law and Justice MP, Paweł Szefernaker, has just offered an insight into why their team think this result could be different. He argues that exit polls historically undervalued conservative candidates and so with such a tiny difference between the candidates here, it’s simply too close to call. Let’s wait and see then. I have looked at the underlying data behind the Ipsos exit poll and it laid bare the extraordinary level of divisions within Polish society. While women voted for pro-European centrist Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski (54 to 46%), men sided with Karol Nawrocki by, erm, the same ratio. When you look at the education levels, Trzaskowski came first among those with a bachelor degree or higher (63% to 37%), but Nawrocki won among all other groups. And so on. In almost every single category, you have extremely polarising results. Higher level executives? Trzaskowski win 65% to 35%. Company owners? Trzaskowski again, by 57% to 43%. But farmers? 79% to 21% for Nawrocki. Employees? 68% to 32% for Nawrocki. Finally, in the buildup to the vote, there was a lot of chat about vote transfers from other candidates, particularly the libertarian far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen who came third in the first round, with 13.47% of the both. Mentzen hosted both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki for one-on-one interviews on his YouTube channel, but it seems that his electorate had a clear preference for Nawrocki, siding with him by 88% to 12%. Former Polish president Aleksander Kwaśniewski (1995-2005) also strikes a cautious note in his first comments saying he would urge candidates to wait for the official results, as it’s too close to call. He says Poland is more divided than ever, as both leading parties have pursed a polarising agenda for the last two decades. He says he hopes to see the new president make some gestures to unite the country, with a cross-party office to support him in his function. Here is our first story from Warsaw, from Shaun Walker and I if you want to catch up on the basic facts: A senior Ipsos executive, Joanna Skrzyńska, tells TVN24 that if this projected result remains so close when the late poll drops at 11pm local time, it will in effect remain too close to call. We may have to wait for the official results tomorrow morning before confidently declaring who has won it, she adds. Get some snacks, we’re in for a long ride. If you’re wondering just how tight this election is, the two exit polls say it is between 70,000 and 100,000 votes. In a country of 37 million, with 28.3 million eligible voters. Wow. Before the exit polls dropped, I told you about all the speculations on turnout. For what it’s worth, the Ipsos exit poll says it will end up being 72.8%, which would be the highest turnout for a presidential election ever (beating 68.23% in 1995). A quick summary of all we know so far is at the top of this blog. A late poll – updated with partial results from some polling stations – is expected at about 11pm local time, so in just under 90 minutes. The Polish presidential race is too close to call, with two exit polls showing the pro-European Warsaw mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, very marginally ahead of the historian and former amateur boxer Karol Nawrocki. The polls show government-aligned Trzaskowski leading 50.3% to 49.7% (Ipsos) and 50.17% to 49.83% (OGB), with the 2% margin of error (21:00 and 21:01). Trzaskowski declared himself a winner (21:02) as he called it a “special moment” in Polish history and pledged to push ahead with reforms (21:16). But Nawrocki, the opposition candidate, did not concede in his first speech, claiming he could still win the race as the results get counted overnight (21:21), a view also expressed by the Law and Justice leader, Jarosław Kaczyński (21:26). This will be a very long night. There is definitely no appetite to concede just yet. Speaking after Nawrocki, the Law and Justice (PiS) party leader and former prime minister, Jarosław Kaczyński, said he was confident “this night … we will win this election”. He hopes to see the candidates swap when the late poll about 11pm local time gets published. Let’s see. The crowd at the party’s HQ is chanting: “We’ve won.” “Yes, we have won. We have won, because we are right, because we speak the truth about Poland, about its future, about its present, and about all that is wrong with our country today,” he responds. He then talks of what he sees as “the Niagara of lies” hitting Nawrocki’s campaign from mainstream media. But Nawrocki doesn’t seem to be that keen to concede just yet. He says he remains confident his team will be victorious at the end of the night and block what he says is Donald Tusk’s attempt to “close the system” with control over both the government and the presidency. As he thanked his supporters, Nawrocki also further attacked his political rivals for “taking money away from us, unleashing the institutions of the Polish state on us, lying”. He also says it was a success to “unite the patriotic camp in Poland, the camp of people who want a normal Poland, without illegal immigrants”. In his speech, Trzaskowski says: “This is a special moment in the history of Poland. I am convinced that this will allow us to move forward like a torpedo and focus primarily on the future.” He pledges to “unite, build, and be the president of all Polish women and men”. Look, I’m sorry to be the boring and responsible guy, but for all we know, this is WELL within the margin of error for both polls and technically remains too close to call. As explained earlier, they said it was +/- 2% for each candidate, so even 52:48 would effectively be too close to call. Trzaskowski seems to be very confident, though, as he continues his victory speech with long thanks for his wife, kids, family, and his staff. He says this result will allow Poland to push ahead with reforms, as he promises to bring the two halves of the country together. I hate how this phrase gets used in this context, but given how close the race seems to be … it really is Poles apart! Despite the absolutely minimal projected margin of victory in the exit poll, Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski declares himself the winner. “We’ve won!”, he starts his speech in Warsaw. Second exit poll – OGB for Republika – backs this. It’s too close to call. Rafał Trzaskowski 50.17% Karol Nawrocki 49.83% That’s about 70,000 votes. In a country of 37 million. Too close to call is the verdict. Rafał Trzaskowski 50.3% Karol Nawrocki 49.7% That’s Ipsos for TVP, TVN and Polsat. Any moment now… Are you ready? Exit poll is imminent. Poland’s presidential election runoff could have far-reaching implications for its place in Europe – either cementing the country’s hard-won seat at the EU’s top table, or heralding a return to altogether trickier times. The return of Tusk, elected on a promise to undo most of the PiS-era reforms, led to a sea change in relations, with the EU rapidly unblocking more than €100bn of funds it had frozen in retaliation for Poland’s backsliding on democratic norms. Bolstered by a thriving economy, rising prosperity and its strategic importance in the resistance to Russia’s war on Ukraine, Warsaw has transformed itself in two short years into one of the EU’s most influential capitals, best buddies with Berlin and Paris. But its full return to the EU fold can be complete only if Tusk can deliver on those key reforms – in particular, rolling back PiS’s politicisation of the court system – that have so far been blocked by the outgoing PiS-aligned president, Andrzej Duda. Polish prime minister Donald Tusk said after the first round of the vote that the next two weeks would decide the future of Poland. So let me give you some context on why it matters so much. While the role of the Polish president is largely ceremonial, it carries some influence over foreign and defence policy and a critical power to veto new legislation. This can only be overturned with a majority of three-fifths in parliament, which the current government does not have. At stake is whether Tusk’s government will be able to make progress on its electoral promises on the rule of law and social issues, including abortion and LGBTQ rights, after 18 months of difficult cohabitation with the opposition president, Andrzej Duda. A win for the opposition candidate, Karol Nawrocki, would prolong the current deadlock, making it difficult for the government to pass any major reforms before the 2027 parliamentary election. But a win for the government candidate, Rafał Trzaskowski, would open the way for the government to go ahead with the reforms in a bid to show their competence ahead of the 2027 vote. One factor that got a lot of attention in the build up to the vote is the turnout. The National Electoral Commission said it was 54.91% at 5pm, the highest-ever figure for Polish presidentials – but just below the all-time-high of the 2023 parliamentary election. If you’re interested in exact numbers, it’s 2.8pp higher than at the same stage of the previous presidential election in 2020 (52.1%), and 4.2pp up than in the first round of this year’s vote, two weeks ago (50.7%). It could well end up being the highest ever turnout for the presidentials. For reference, it was 68.2% in 2020. What does it mean? Well – it could mean different things, and we would need to get into the weeds on geographical distribution, and so on. So best not to speculate and keep it simple – and wait. We’re just under 20 minutes away from the polls closing. For all the understandable focus on the exit poll at 9pm (8pm BST), let’s face one thing: yes, it will give us an indication on where the pollsters think we are, but do not be surprised if their top line is well within the margin of error. On Friday, Ipsos Poland – which runs the main exit poll for three broadcasters, TVP, TVP and Polsat – warned that the exit poll has +/- 2% error for each candidate, with the later late exit poll – expected two hours later – narrowing it down to +/- 1%. Given how close this race has been, it is not inconceivable that the difference between the two candidates will still be within that margin, and that means we will have to wait a bit longer. Ipsos themselves said that, of course, they were well prepared for the challenge ahead, but would still need a bit more luck than usual. There is also a second exit poll, by OGB for Republika (same caveats and rules on margins of error apply). They were pretty close in the first round, so I will bring you both sets of figures. For context, here is our poll tracker looking at all the polls conducted and published before the country went into electoral silence on Friday night. 60 minutes to go. Both candidates cast their votes earlier today, surrounded by their closest family members. And both of them voted in Warsaw, where they will also host their results parties tonight. Good evening, or dobry wieczór, from Warsaw, Poland. We are less than 90 minutes away from the polls closing in what is the expected to be the closest Polish presidential election after the fall of communism in 1989. The race pits the pro-European Warsaw mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, backed by Donald Tusk’s politically-diverse governing coalition, against the historian and former amateur boxer Karol Nawrocki, endorsed by the populist-right Law and Justice (PiS) party that governed the country between 2015 and 2023. Reporting from Warsaw, I will bring you all the key updates throughout the evening as we hope to find out who will be the next president of Poland. Why does it matter, I hear you ask? Well, it’s Europe’s sixth largest economy, the highest GDP spender on defence within Nato, and a (so far) supportive ally of Ukraine. That’s to start with. You can read our primer on what it means for Poland’s domestic politics and the position of the current government, led by former European Council president Donald Tusk, here. If you fancy a broader look at Poland’s place in Europe and what tonight’s result could mean for that, here’s a broader analysis on that issue. If you don’t want to read the entire thing just yet, don’t worry – I will bring you some key bullet points here. The polls close 9pm local (8pm BST), and we will get exit polls numbers straight away. It’s Sunday, 1 June 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here. Let’s go. Zaczynamy.
Author: Jakub Krupa