Right-wing opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki narrowly won Poland’s second round presidential election, official results showed, dealing a huge blow to prime minister Donald Tusk’s reform agenda. Nawrocki was backed by the right-populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which ruled Poland until Donald Tusk’s parliamentary election victory in late 2023. The defeat of the government-preferred candidate, pro-European Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, puts a spanner in the works for Tusk’s government, locking it in a political stalemate with a hostile president for the next five years. Leaders of the parties forming the governing coalition are set to meet for talks on how to respond to the setback later today, with media suggestion that Tusk could even call a vote of confidence in his government to prove that he still commands a majority in the parliament (12:24, 15:05 and 15:24) His media statement is expected 8pm local time (7pm BST). I will keep an eye on Tusk’s statement tonight, so make sure to check our website later tonight to see if there’s an update on this. But for now, it’s a wrap from me, Jakub Krupa in Warsaw. If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com. I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa. Meanwhile, French president Emmanuel Macron is the latest European leader to congratulate Nawrocki on his win last night. In a social media post, he said: Congratulations @NawrockiKn on your election. Let us together strengthen the bond that unites Poland and France, in the spirit of the Treaty of Nancy and the friendship between our countries. Let us continue to build a strong, independent, competitive Europe that respects the rule of law. Broadcaster Polsat News is reporting unofficially that Polish prime minister Donald Tusk is considering asking his coalition partners to call a vote of confidence in his government. The move, if confirmed, would be seen as an attempt to quash speculation about the stability of his administration following last night’s defeat. But it’d be a gamble. It would essentially require all parties to publicly fully re-commit to the government, which they may be hesitant to do given its unpopularity. Sejm speaker Szymon Hołownia, for one, appeared unconvinced. Speaking at a press conference, he dismissed the idea as little more than a “theatrical gesture” and hinted that he and his MPs might abstain in protest at how the plan is being pushed forward. Let’s see. We’ll know more after coalition talks wrap up and once Tusk addresses the public this evening (8pm local time, 7pm BST). If the vote gets called, it could take place tomorrow or Wednesday, as – what a coincidence – it’s a sitting week of the parliament. Oh-oh. Sejm speaker Szymon Hołownia, who leads one of the junior coalition parties Polska 2050 with 32 MPs, has just said that leaders of all parties forming the Tusk government will meet today to discuss the coalition arrangements in the aftermath of last night’s presidential defeat. Hołownia – a failed presidential candidate himself, as he came fifth in the first round with 4.99% of votes – said he would request that the coalition agreement be renegotiated to “draw lessons from what happened in the election process.” “I’m not talking about positions or posts here,” he added. “What matters most is that we clearly and consistently communicate to the Polish people what we aim to achieve over the next two years, how we plan to do it, and what our priorities are.” He added that: The election result, as I’ve said many times, is a yellow card – maybe even a red one – for this government and this coalition. “I spent six months traveling across Poland, listening, and taking the criticism for every ministry, starting with the prime minister.” “I was the only candidate on this side who went out there and had the courage to face the disappointed hopes of Polish citizens. This isn’t a time for tearing our clothes in despair – it’s a time to get to work. And for that, we need to clearly define our priorities,” he said. His comments only add to a rather hectic atmosphere before the coalition meeting and the statement from prime minister Donald Tusk, expected at 8pm tonight. The European Commission said it was “confident that the reforms that have been started by the Polish government will be pursued and will continue,” and stressed it would work constructively with the new president when he takes office in August. Asked about Poland, a commission spokesperson said: We welcome any democratically elected president or head of state. And as always, we will seek good cooperation building on the very good cooperation that we have with Poland and this is what also President von der Leyen is looking forward to with the new president elected now by the Polish population. Pushed further on the future of Polish rule of law reforms, pursued by Donald Tusk’s government in a bid to reverse some of the changes introduced by the Law and Justice over its eight years in office, the spokesperson said: It’s also early for us to comment on any possible future measures by the new president … we’ll have to wait and see what comes out from his presidency. She later added: Of course, we are confident that the reforms that have been started by the Polish government will be pursued and will continue. This strikes me as a somewhat optimistic assumption given that the new president is backed by the very party that authored the original changes, the Law and Justice, and will have the power to veto new reforms. Jakub Krupa in Warsaw and Jon Henley Far-right leaders in Europe have welcomed the victory of the nationalist opposition candidate, Karol Nawrocki, in Poland’s presidential elections, a result that deals a huge blow to the centre-right prime minister Donald Tusk’s reform and pro-EU agenda. Nawrocki, a conservative historian and former amateur boxer, won Sunday’s election with 50.89% of the vote, final figures showed on Monday, ahead of his rival, Rafał Trzaskowski, the liberal Warsaw mayor and an ally of Tusk, who secured 49.11%. “Congratulations to President @NawrockiKn on his fantastic victory,” Hungary’s illiberal prime minister, Viktor Orbán, posted on social media, adding that he was “looking forward to working” with the 42-year-old, who has never held elected office. France’s far-right National Rally leader, Marine Le Pen, said Nawrocki’s win was “good news” and marked a “disavowal of the Brussels oligarchy” trying to impose its “authoritarian policies and federalist ambitions … in defiance of the democratic will”. Nawrocki was backed by the right-populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which ruled Poland until Tusk’s parliamentary election victory in late 2023. Polish prime minister Donald Tusk is yet to comment on the result of last night’s vote and the bitter disappointment of his candidate losing the election. It’s unusual for him to be so restrained, as he’s normally very active on social media and keen to speak on public issues of the day. In the last few minutes, TVN24 reported that he will offer his reaction in a “special broadcast” at 8pm local time tonight. One to watch. The victory margin of the nationalist Karol Nawrocki in Poland’s presidential elections may have been wafer-thin, but it marks a huge upheaval in the country’s political landscape whose impact will be felt not just in Warsaw but across the EU. His win means PiS retains a size-11 boot in the door of Poland’s politics that could seriously destabilise the coalition government of the centre-right prime minister, Donald Tusk, and threaten the country’s newfound place at Europe’s top table. Nawrocki’s victory hands him a presidential veto that will make it difficult for Tusk’s government to pass promised legislation rolling back the judicial and other changes implemented by PiS that led to repeated clashes with Brussels. But it heralds more than just a delicate period of cohabitation between a pro-EU prime minister and a nationalist, Eurosceptic president. The 42-year-old, who has never held elected office, will seek to actively undermine Tusk wherever he can. Poland’s outgoing PiS-aligned president, Andrzej Duda, deployed his veto, but sparingly. Nawrocki will do so more aggressively and systematically, analysts say, aiming to weaken the prime minister before 2027 parliamentary elections. PiS and its allies will portray Sunday’s presidential vote as a full-scale rejection of Tusk’s progressive and reformist agenda – and may even be tempted to try to bring down his already fractured coalition government before the end of its term. The defeated candidate, Rafał Trzaskowski, has now conceded the election after a bruising night which started off with him declaring a victory on the basis of an exit poll, but ended with him bitterly disappointed. In a social media post, he thanked his supporters for voting for “strong, safe, honest and empathetic” Poland. “Thank you for trusting in me and for your vote on Sunday. I am sorry I could not persuade the majority of citizens to my vision of Poland. I am sorry we didn’t win together.” He then added: “I congratulate Karol Nawrocki on his win in the presidential election. This victory comes with great responsibility, especially in such challenging times. Especially with such a close result. Please keep that in mind. Thank you for everything. See you!” Germany had clearly been hoping for another outcome from the Polish election, with a strong, like-minded partner for cooperation within the EU on hot-button issues such as immigration, and on the Ukraine brief. President Frank-Walter Steinmeier tried to put a brave face on the results with a statement early on Monday sending “warm congratulations” to Karol Nawrocki. “Germany and Poland are not only neighbours but also friends,” Steinmeier said. “I am grateful that I have been able to experience and take part in the deepening of our relations over many years.” Steinmeier said German-Polish friendship was “a matter close to my heart”: “Let us strengthen friendship between our people together.” In an oblique reference to Warsaw’s continued demand for further wartime reparations 80 years on, he insisted Berlin was “aware of its ongoing responsibility for the great suffering that Germans have brought upon Poland”. “We are all the more grateful that Poland and Germany stand side-by-side today as close partners in the European Union and Nato,” he said. Steinmeier offered close cooperation “on the foundation of democracy and the rule of law,” in order “to ensure a future for Europe in security, freedom and prosperity”. The German head of state closed with a reminder of Nawrocki’s heavy responsibility, with his country and Europe at a crossroads. “You are taking office at a very challenging time for Europe, in which we are counting on Poland,” he said. “A strong Europe needs good German-Polish cooperation, especially at this time.” Steinmeier closed with an invitation to visit Berlin, saying he would be “delighted” to welcome him soon and wishing him “every success in your office which is full of responsibility”. Other European leaders are also sending Nawrocki their congratulations, including the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán. He said: What a nail-biter! Congratulations to President @NawrockiKn on his fantastic victory in the Polish presidential elections. We are looking forward to working with you on strengthening the Visegrad cooperation. Lithuanian president Gitanas Nausėda said: Congratulations @NawrockiKn on being elected as President of Poland! Lithuania and Poland are united by sincere friendship rooted in history, culture, and values. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation for the security and prosperity of our nations and Europe as a whole. Czech prime minister Petr Fiala: Congratulations to @NawrockiKn on winning the presidential election. Poland is one of our closest allies, and I firmly believe that we will continue to strengthen our relations, which are founded on solid democratic values. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has just congratulated Nawrocki on the win. He said: Poland, which preserves the strength of its national spirit and its faith in justice, has been and remains a pillar of regional and European security, and a strong voice defending freedom and dignity for every nation. By reinforcing one another on our continent, we give greater strength to Europe in global competition and bring the achievement of real and lasting peace closer. I look forward to continued fruitful cooperation with Poland and with President Nawrocki personally. Good morning, or dzień dobry, from Warsaw, it’s Jakub Krupa here, taking over to bring you the latest updates from Poland and across Europe. Here is a video report on Karol Nawrocki’s election victory in Poland. The populist-right opposition candidate narrowly won with 50.89% of the vote in a blow for the coalition government led by Donald Tusk. Reuters reports that the stock market in Poland is slightly down after Karol Nawrocki’s narrow election victory. The blue-chip index WIG20 was down about 3.39%. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen has said she expects “very good cooperation” to continue between the EU and Poland under the presidency of newly elected Karol Nawrocki. In a post on X, formerly Twitter, she said: I’m confident that the EU will continue its very good cooperation with Poland. We are all stronger together in our community of peace, democracy, and values. So let us work to ensure the security and prosperity of our common home. Poland’s electoral commission said early on Monday that Nawrocki won with 50.89% of the votes, beating Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal Warsaw mayor and ally of Donald Tusk’s Polish government. The president of the Czech Republic has also offered congratulations to Karol Nawrocki. In a post to social media, Petr Pavel said: I congratulate Karol Nawrocki on his election as Polish President. I believe that under his leadership, Poland will continue to develop its democratic and pro-western orientation and that our countries will continue mutually beneficial cooperation. Karol Nawrocki’s victory is a “fresh victory for [European] patriots”, Hungarian foreign minister Peter Szijjarto has said on his Facebook page. Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, also an ally of Donald Trump, championed Nawrocki at last week’s CPAC conference on Thursday. CPAC is the US’ biggest conservative gathering. As we reported earlier, the US secretary of homeland security, Kristi Noem, also backed Nawrocki at the conference. Now that Nawrocki has been confirmed as the president-elect by the official results, expect his critics to get back to asking questions about some of the scandals that affected his campaign in the last few weeks before the vote. He faced questions over the circumstances in which he bought an apartment from an elderly man, with suggestions that he acted improperly and failed to meet his obligations to provide care as part of the transaction. He denies the allegations. He was also hit by media reports that he was allegedly involved in procuring sex workers while working as a student security guard at a hotel (a claim he also strongly denies). It was also revealed that Nawrocki took part in an organised fight between 140 football hooligans 20 years ago as part of a firm linked to Lechia Gdańsk football club. Responding to criticism, he called it an act of “noble combat” and referenced his past as an amateur boxer. Prof Aleks Szczerbiak from University of Sussex tried to explain to me earlier this week why none of that changed his ratings among his core electorate: You get to a tipping point … where a lot of people start to think they are just coming up with stuff to discredit this guy … [Hooliganism] does fit with his image that ‘this is a tough guy who takes no prisoners, not afraid to go into a fight representing me and my interests’ … It’s actually a double-edged sword. US President Donald Trump made it clear he wanted Nawrocki as Poland’s president and in the last few days he also got public backing from Kristi Noem, the US secretary of homeland security. Last month, the White House released photographs of Nawrocki meeting Trump in the Oval Office – a tacit but unmistakable show of support. The conservative group CPAC held its first meeting in Poland last week to give Nawrocki a boost, AP reported. Noem urged Poles to vote for him. Speaking to the conference, she said: I just had the opportunity to meet with Karol, and listen, he needs to be the next president of Poland. Do you understand me? The US has about 10,000 troops stationed in Poland and Noem suggested that military ties could deepen with Nawrocki as president. A common refrain from Nawrocki’s supporters is that he will restore “normality,” as they believe Trump has done. US flags often appeared at Nawrocki’s rallies, and his supporters believed that he offered a better chance for good ties with the Trump administration. Ahead of the election, our Europe correspondent Jon Henley spoke to experts about what a Nawrocki win would mean for the country’s foreign policy. Here’s a snippet of what he wrote: While in theory Polish presidents have limited influence over foreign policy, a win for Nawrocki, backed by PiS, would inevitably – and, eventually, significantly – constrain Poland’s European ambitions, analysts say. “We’re not so much talking direct policy consequences,” said Piotr Buras of the European Council on Foreign Relations thinktank. “But if Trzaskowski, Tusk’s candidate, loses, the message is that Poles reject him and his government.” Deprived of that legitimacy, Tusk “will struggle to play the big role in the EU he has started to play”, Buras said. “His government will be weaker, its room for manoeuvre will shrink. It’s about Poland’s capacity to play a strong role on the EU stage.” Tusk’s electoral victory two years ago marked the beginning of Poland’s return to the European fold after two fractious terms of populist national-conservative rule during which Warsaw clashed repeatedly with Brussels over rule of law concerns. PiS also regularly picked unnecessary fights with Germany, and in many EU debates sided with the illiberal Hungarian government of the prime minister, Viktor Orbán, the bloc’s disrupter-in-chief, further alienating Poland from the European mainstream. The return of Tusk, elected on a promise to undo most of the PiS-era reforms, led to a sea change in relations, with the EU rapidly unblocking more than €100bn of funds it had frozen in retaliation for Poland’s backsliding on democratic norms. Bolstered by a thriving economy, rising prosperity and its strategic importance in the resistance to Russia’s war on Ukraine, Warsaw has transformed itself in two short years into one of the EU’s most influential capitals, best buddies with Berlin and Paris. But its full return to the EU fold can be complete only if Tusk can deliver on those key reforms – in particular, rolling back PiS’s politicisation of the court system – that have so far been blocked by the outgoing PiS-aligned president, Andrzej Duda. President Andrzej Duda, a conservative like Nawrocki, has thanked voters for taking part in the election and congratulated his successor. In a post on X, he wrote: THANK YOU! For participating in the presidential elections. For the turnout. For fulfilling your civic duty. For taking responsibility for Poland. Congratulations to the Winner! Stay strong, POLAND! Nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki is a former amateur boxer with a particular interest in the criminal underworld. Here’s more from AFP: The 42-year-old Nawrocki has been endorsed by the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, which governed Poland from 2015 to 2023. The party is closely allied with outgoing President Andrzej Duda - who has publicly backed Nawrocki – and is a long-standing rival of the ruling Civic Coalition. Nawrocki campaigned under the slogan “Poland first, Poles first”. While he has pledged to continue Poland’s support for neighbouring Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, he has denounced the benefits given to war refugees. He said in a campaign video in April that “social benefits will be above all for Poles” and that “in queues for doctors and clinics, Polish citizens must have priority”. In May, he claimed Ukraine “has not shown gratitude for what Poles have done” and accused President Volodymyr Zelensky of “insolence”. He opposes Ukraine’s bid to join Nato and is also an admirer of Donald Trump and has said Poland should focus on shaping and leading Europe’s relations with the US president. He served as the director of the World War II museum in Gdansk from 2017 to 2021. Since then, he has led the Institute of National Remembrance, which investigates Nazi and communist-era crimes. While the role of the Polish president is largely ceremonial, it carries some influence over foreign and defence policy and a critical power to veto new legislation. This can only be overturned with a 60% majority in parliament, which the current government, led by Donald Tusk, does not have. At stake is whether Tusk’s government will be able to make progress on its electoral promises on the rule of law and social issues, including abortion and LGBTQ rights, after 18 months of difficult cohabitation with the opposition president, Andrzej Duda. Nawrocki’s win is expected to prolong the deadlock, making it difficult if not impossible for the government to pass any big reforms before the 2027 parliamentary election. “Tusk knows the stakes and that if Nawrocki wins, he’s got a lame-duck administration for the next couple of years. And it will be worse than with Duda as Nawrocki will come in fresh, with a new mandate from what effectively turned into a referendum on the government,” Prof Aleks Szczerbiak, who teaches east and central European politics at the University of Sussex, said prior to the election. The populist-right opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by the Law and Justice party (PiS), has won Poland’s presidential election, defeating his pro-European rival Rafał Trzaskowski, in a nail-bitingly close contest. Official results showed Nawrocki took 50.89% of votes in the runoff, with Trzaskowski on 49.11%. Nawrocki’s victory is a major blow for the coalition government led by Donald Tusk and is expected to prolong the current political deadlock in the country as well as complicate the country’s position in Europe. The results comes after a dramatic turnaround given the first exit poll published just as the polls closed had suggested a narrow win for Trzaskowski by 0.6pp, prompting him to declare victory. Nawrocki did not concede, saying he remained confident he would win when all the votes were counted. “We will win and save Poland,” he said. “We must win tonight.” During a bitterly fought and often bad-tempered campaign in recent weeks, the two men have offered very different visions of Poland, and the result of the race will have enormous implications for the country’s political future, given the president’s ability to veto government legislation.
Author: Jakub Krupa in Warsaw, Martin Belam and Helen Livingstone